Future Challenges of Biden Administration. Recently, the United States of America declassified its Indo-Pacific Strategy, which outlines objectives and strategies focusing on the regional players such as India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and China. Future Challenges of Biden Administration.
This untimely release of classified documents, just two years after it comes into implementation, is a very unlikely event. The timing of the release with a perspective of national security – is highly strategic, especially when there is a transition to Biden Administration or the Obama 3.0. Future Challenges of Biden Administration.
This document declassified by the Trump administration serves as a reassurance to South Asian countries, especially India, helping the US counter China’s influence in South Asia. This means that the US shall be now focusing more on allying with regional power than acting unilaterally – thus serving as more of a reassurance that Washington won’t be backing down on its commitment in the Indo-Pacific region.
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Dawn of New Era?
Soon after swearing in as the 46th President of the US, Joe Biden got straight down to work. He signed 17 executive orders on issues ranging from an action on US Afghanistan relations, Taskforce on Extremism, global health issues such as pandemic preparedness and response, reviving the Iran Deal, environmental challenges, which include joining the historic Paris Agreement, among the others.
A major part of Biden’s foreign policy and national security issues seems to be more focused on reversing/revamping important foreign policy and national security decisions made by the Trump administration.
Biden has made national security his top priority after the heightened tension revolving around rioters who took over Capitol Hill right before the start of his tenure. These initial actions have been around unifying a broken country, most importantly, a democracy – these actions included repealing the discriminatory travel ban.
This carefully crafted inaugural put a lot of emphasis on giving out a strong message of unity in diversity as the National Security Panel is also a mix of white, black, Latina, and mixed descent – both men and women.
Diversity Mix
The Biden National Security Panel is more of a mix relying on governance and policymakers with deep expertise, a global understanding of the trade, and most importantly, strong relations in Washington.
Retired General Llyod, who is confirmed by the Senate to serve as first Black Defence Secretary for Pentagon – had to be granted a waiver of law from the Senate – as every defense secretary requires to wait for seven years before joining the active duty shows the importance and subordination of military power with the civil.
This administration sees a lot of diversity in form of gender and race representation and a lot of first’s indicating that it shall be projecting the new America.
For the first time ever, more than 20 Indian-Americans are part of the US office with 17 at key White House posts including Vice President Kamala Harris and three appointments in the National Security Council.
Taking Environment Issues Head-On
One of the most striking features of Biden’s National Security Team includes a climate envoy – setting a precedence that Climate challenges will be among his core national security priority. Washington has made it clear that climate emergency is imperative to drive global ambitions.
This also sets a tone for US-India Climate Partnership, as India is a leader in clean energy especially solar and wind energy. This needs robust partnership building for the future to achieve the ideals set by the Paris Agreement.
Domestic Extremism Task Force
Since the extremists stormed on Capitol Hill, Washington has recalibrated its efforts from abroad to home. President Biden’s administration is seeing a culmination of years of warning and threat posed by domestic extremism, an encouragement seen in the Obama Administration as they developed “National Strategy for Counterterrorism.” This saw a decline with the Trump Administration.
Traditional Counter-terrorism and law enforcement do fail to prevent extremist violence from taking root in the communities. Thus, the rationale behind CVE (Countering Violent Extremism) agenda is to bring down narratives, propaganda, prevent radicalization, and recruit youth for the activities – something India has been countering in states like Kerala, Jammu Kashmir, among the other states.
For the first time this November, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) has started an attempt to legally define ‘radicalization’ in India.
Afghanistan Conundrum?
Last year, a four-paged pact was being signed between the United States, Taliban, and the Afghanistan Government; however, the Afghan Government was completely sidelined during the entire talk.
Washington has begun to withdraw troops; as of now, it has only 2500 troops actively serving in the region after these particular commitments being made by the Taliban. Moreover, the United States has mandated on preparing to withdraw all military forces from Afghanistan by mid-2021 which is under review by the present Biden Administration.
India has always been reluctant to engage with the Taliban as New Delhi has always reiterated India’s long-held support for the “Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled”peace process as India is the oldest and the strongest proponent of democratic governance in Kabul. New Delhi’s engagement is crucial for various reasons; firstly, it does not support the Taliban in constituting a democratic government in Kabul.
Secondly, the Taliban uses this particular offset to engage with Karachi, which is also a player in the neighborhood, alongside Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran at bay. Thus, New Delhi cannot forgo the institutional, developmental, and capacity-building work done in decades, especially when it comes to change in the status quo of Taliban regarding the education of women and to develop educational institutions and training.
It’s the future that will tell us – if this particular move plays off in favor of New Delhi or not; New Delhi should be prepared whatsoever.
Iran-US-India Relations?
Relations between the United States and Iran have been tense ever since the Obama Administration regarding the nuclear deal. Recently, both the nations have been using outright methods of warfare and assassination, along with the killing of the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps in a drone strike by the Trump Administration – this has kept the strategic interests at stake due to such retaliatory warfare.
Moreover, JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) was established the keep Iran’s Nuclear under check-in 2015, but it was the Trump Administration that pulled out of the deal in 2018. Should the Biden Administration promise to revive, this deal is noteworthy, especially through the lens of the international security arena.
India’s investment in Chabahar has always been held hostage to international policy shifts on Iran. US policy, in particular, has swung wildly in the last two decades. It placed heavy sanctions on Iran until nuclear talks between the P-5+1 (the US, the U.K., France, China, Russia, and Germany) that began in 2006 ended successfully with the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan Action (JCPOA) in 2015.
As a result, while India continued to negotiate for Chabahar, it was not until after the sanctions were lifted that talks could make headway. The largest worry is that Chabahar, the enduring symbol of India-Iran friendship, could become collateral damage in a larger proxy war between the US and China. This can be India’s chance to revive this particular deal with Iran.
Israel and the USA- What does the future hold?
The US policy towards Israel and Palestine issue took a dramatic turn when Trump Administration favored Israel, but this stance is most shift as Joe Biden has always been vocal over his relationship with the Palestinians.
One cannot deny the fact that Trump did overturn the future of US policy in the Middle East as the deal brokered between Israel and Arab countries have brought inline the strategic realignment of Middle Eastern Countries against Iran through Abraham Accord.
One of the challenges that the Biden Administration will be is how it will walk back not just from the once-in-a-decade treaties assuring peace in the region but also projecting an image of fairness and balance Israeli – Palestinian conflict keeping in mind the legacy already made by the Trump Administration.
South Asia and the Indo-Pacific region?
Mr. Kuan-Ting Chen, CEO of Taiwan NextGen Foundation, states that the new US admin might take a “turning point” in Taiwan-US relations, especially when the Chinese keep pursuing their unilateral actions cross-strait.
With Donald Trump having paved way for Taiwan by allowing high-profile visits and arms sales of arms, the feat is likely to continue under Joe Biden also. With the growing realization in the US about China’s hand in COVID-19, it’s widely speculated speculation the new US government will set up a thorough inquiry once they are under control pandemic at home.
In this case, there is a possibility that the US might voice support for Taiwan’s inclusion in the World Health Assembly. Although it is too early to predict how Biden’s approach towards cross-strait relations will be, it is for sure that it will not be “business-as-usual.”
Now, Taiwan and India have been interesting partners indeed, but New Delhi till now has been following the ‘One China Policy,’ and this limits the possibility of having an official diplomatic channel. But considering Taiwanese Interest in India, an engagement is needed especially when de facto ambassador Hsiao Bi-Khim attended an inauguration for the first time with an official invitation.
The Big Picture
Given the emerging picture, New Delhi needs to be more vocal about its priority and setting International agenda with the US.
Biden Administration shall try to leverage “America First” policy, but his interesting choice of officials reflect that the India-US relationship in the coming time would require a lot of close cooperation as this administration’s major challenges in form of Corona, domestic employment or any other will continue to impact the future of QUAD and long-standing challenges with China in the Indo-Pacific region.