India’s New Role for Afghan’s Peace. With Afghanistan’s Army Chief coming to India, this scheduled three-day visit comes at the time when Afghan Forces are fiercely fighting against the Taliban, which claimed last week that it had captured 85% of the Afghan territory, though details are still fuzzy. India’s New Role for Afghan’s Peace.
Every day in Afghanistan appears like looking at a grim kaleidoscope. Each day brings new development and the entire picture of the region seems changed since the US and the Allied NATO forces left.
India’s new role for Afghan’s Peace
These developments, compel us to examine the impact on the India-Afghanistan relationship and what exactly is at stake in this regard.
Taliban, Terror & India’s Commitment
From the saga of the hijacking of IC-814 in December 1999 and negotiations in Kandahar for the release of the aircraft to the closure of its mission in Afghanistan during the Taliban regime, India had come a long way in re-establishing its presence in the war-ravaged country after 2001 to opening a consulate in that region.
New Delhi had always focused on an “Afghan-led, Afghan Owned” democratic government, quite the opposite of what Islamabad wants, as India has nearly spent around $3 Billion for the pledged aid and infrastructure development.
For instance, the Chabahar project: In May 2016, India, Iran, and Afghanistan signed the trilateral agreement which entailed the establishment of Transit and Transport Corridor among them using Chabahar port in Iran as one of the regional hubs for sea transportation.
A step is deemed as India’s way forward to firm its footing in Central Asia’s growing trade market, while also opening new avenues for the landlocked Afghanistan who usually has to depend on Pakistan’s market and trade routes. All this, while providing India security against China’s aggressive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) under the One Belt One Road (OBOR) project as Chabahar port can also act as a counter to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, which is being developed with Chinese investment.
NEW DEVELOPMENTS
This new development in diplomacy was taken by our External Affairs Minister Mr. S Jaishankar on a whirlwind tour of Qatar, Russia, and a surprise drop at Iran. A regional conference meant to foster connectivity between Central and South Asia held in Uzbekistan called – “Central and South Asia: Regional connectivity, challenges, and opportunities”, Jaishankar met with the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. They discussed the ongoing situation in Afghanistan and Jaishankar reiterated India’s support towards peace, stability, and development of Afghanistan.
Qatar has played the role of negotiator between India and the Afghan Taliban, but there are still four different factions within the Taliban, such as the moderates, extremists, dependants, and independents – each having their own significant objectives in the region with different backing from non-state actors.
Notably, each of these countries involved in this process has its own significance for India– Russia and Iran have been New Delhi’s strategic partner since the 1970s; Tehran has been supporting New Delhi in negotiation with hardliners who did take refuge in the border regions of Iran while Moscow garner support as it shall play an important role since Washington focusing its energy in the Indo-Pacific. New Delhi has adopted a two-pronged approach – while the negotiation happens in Qatar with the moderates, EAM negotiates through Tehran with factions more towards hardliners.
The Afghan President has been vocal on the international forum by accusing Islamabad at the conference of failing to deliver on its commitments to influence the Taliban to participate in negotiations and to prevent the cross-border movement of jihadi fighters.
These remarks by the Afghan President reflected their government’s frustration over the Taliban’s refusal to begin talks to find a political settlement. And there’s a good reason. Given that in one of the reports, S Jaishankar and his counterpart Foreign Minister of Russia Sergey Lavrov stated that-
Intelligence estimates reveal an “influx of over 10,000 jihadi fighters from Pakistan and other places in the last month as well support from their affiliates and the trans-national organizations”.
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How Reliable Is The Taliban?
A few days ago, a Taliban delegate in Moscow had claimed that they controlled 85% of Afghanistan and had reassured Russia that it would not allow the country to be used as a terrorism platform as reports of Taliban insurgents trying to gain fresh territory in Afghanistan started surfacing after the US forces were withdrawn.
But here’s the catch, the movement which claims to implement a reformed version of Sharia laws and create a peaceful Islamic society has indulged in some pretty hardcore activities which question the core ideology and intention behind the power grab.
Under what they call a ‘genuine Islamic system’, girls were banned from school, women accused of crimes such as adultery were stoned to death in stadiums, music and TV were banned, men were forced to grow beards, and the ‘imams’ were in captured areas were directed to marry the girls above 15 and widows under 45 to Taliban fighters.
This automatically raises a question in front of India, that whether such a movement should be trusted with support?
Taliban’s Capabilities Are Dicey
A stark reality of a stalemate awaits the Taliban because the capture of Kabul and Kandahar, power centers of Afghanistan, seem beyond their capabilities. In fact, the ‘85% Afghanistan under Taliban’ claim even turned out to be a phony statement, propped up by Pakistan media. Ground reports indicate that it does not control more than 45-50% of desolate land comprising not more than 25-30 % rural population. Afghan Taliban has now understood the ground realities.
However, if a report by Wall Street Journal is to be believed, the US officials have predicted that Kabul would fall in full control of extremists before the end of this year as the Afghan government troops itself had started giving up without a fight by handing over the US equipment to Taliban.
The present Taliban leadership is deemed different from its predecessors, who existed 25 years ago. Though the ideology of Islamic rule has not changed, it knows that it cannot attain an all-out victory. Even if it does gain some success with a lot of bloodsheds, it cannot rule Afghanistan without the help of the outside world for reconstruction and wealth creation. With the Taliban looking to overthrow the government in Kabul, it is clear that the meeting of Afghanistan’s Chief of Army shall be a crucial strategic move to woo New Delhi to support the Afghan cause in the region.
It has to mend fences with regional powers like China and India. Recent overtures have been noteworthy as India of non – interference in Kashmir while assuring Washington that the country shall not put any attempt to use Afghanistan to stage terrorist attacks abroad – conveniently forgetting about 9/11 Twin Tower attacks; Taliban assured Beijing, “China is a friendly country, and it promises to China to not host Uyghur Islamic Militant from the volatile Xinjiang Province of China”; while we look at how diplomatically and carefully worded each of these statements has been, we have to look how Taliban has indirect support from Pakistan.
CONCLUSION
At this juncture, it becomes clear that while India wants to support Afghanistan in a peaceful development, the threat of the Taliban needs to be handled carefully given their extreme plans.