Taliban of Today is Dangerous than past. In 2001, U.S. aircraft began bombing the training bases and strongholds of Al-Qaeda and the ruling Taliban across Afghanistan in retaliation to a terrorist attack on American soil specifically targeting the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon. Taliban of Today is Dangerous than past.
President George Bush’s immediate expression of America’s desire was to get Osama Bin Laden ‘Dead or Alive’. Twenty years later, with Joe Biden’s historic decision to leave Afghanistan as the ‘objective’ of achieving a peace deal with the Taliban, the United States left Afghanistan to its so-called trained military who fell like a pack of cards in a few weeks, resulting in surrendering Kabul to Taliban. Taliban of Today is Dangerous than past.
The most interesting (and doubtful) aspect of the recent developments in Afghanistan is the assurances that had been given by the Taliban’s spokesperson while negotiating the peace deal. Recently, the Taliban assured the world that it will uphold women’s rights, provide full amnesty to those who served the previous government, won’t attack diplomatic enclaves, made Burqa not mandatory (though Hijab is). With this well-oiled machinery of communication with the outer world are they projecting how a country could develop without the influence of America and Allied NATO Forces? These signals do not match the Ultra Conservative hardliner approach which is synonymous with the Taliban’s track record.
It seems, however, that the Taliban is essentially projecting what countries like Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, Pakistan want it to. And with the support of the OIC countries who appreciate the change in the name of the country – The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (for the enforcement of Islamic law in the country), things are going to become trickier for United States of America and Allies in the region.
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QUAD COUNTRIES
One of the major signals which could be seen is the emergence of QUAD in the Indo-Pacific region, which makes these above countries group together as a whole with a clear signal to the USA – “You should stay in your own backyard”. The Taliban 2.0 is more than just a set of religious fanatics with AK-47’s and now is part of the larger game in South Asia while essentially becoming a part of a more polarized world.
Under these circumstances, New Delhi isn’t in any hurry to take a position on the Afghan Crisis, as recently, the Taliban spokesperson commented that New Delhi can complete its infrastructure projects.
Despite being one of the poorest nations in the world, Afghanistan is sitting on one of the richest troves of minerals in the world. In 2010, an internal US Department of Defense memo called Afghanistan “the Saudi Arabia of lithium,” after American geologists discovered the vast extent of the country’s mineral wealth, valued at least $1 trillion. Lithium is essential for electric vehicles and renewable energy batteries. Now one of the world’s biggest Lithium deposits will be under the Taliban’s control. What is also noteworthy is the Golden Crescent – drug money, with almost 85% of opium across the world coming from Afghanistan.
This mountainous landlocked country sits at the crossroads of Central and South Asia, surrounded by Pakistan in the east, and south, Iran to the west, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan to the north and China to the northeast – making it one of the most sought after route for Beijing’s ambitious One Belt One Road initiative – it provides for more accessibility to West Asia and Central Asian region.
NEW CHALLENGES IN TIMES TO COME
A few challenges that New Delhi will be facing in times to come is the expected increase in the support to terrorism in Kashmir by the Pakistani deep state and Taliban Deobandi ideological brothers like Jaish-e-Mohammad and Tehreek-e-Taliban.
In addition, the Govt will also need to chart a clear-cut policy on refugees as hundreds of Afghan nationals who were previously allied with the Ashraf Ghani government and other refugees who fear persecution came to India. But in the past and to date, India has accepted more than 3,00,000 refugees purely based on goodwill rather than being bound by the international refugee convention. This time, New Delhi has framed a long-term approach towards Afghanistan that weaves greater political, economic, military, and diplomatic dimensions into a coherent strategy especially considering the goals, regional and global strategic aspirations in the Indo-Pacific.
In the words of Lt. Gen. Shokin Chauhan, “Since Pakistan’s key policy objective has been to establish its hegemony in Afghanistan, it views an independent Afghanistan that has a vibrant relationship with India as the main hurdle in the achievement of its hegemonic ambitions. However, an Afghanistan deprived of Indian presence would be nothing but another hapless province of Pakistan to be ruled by movers and shakers from Rawalpindi and to be exploited by China through the Belt and Road Initiative.
More problematically, this will not only compound the humiliating experiences of the Afghan people by way of rollback of their basic freedoms but also create a breeding ground for various fundamentalist organizations, ready to escalate religious and sectarian conflicts across the region. Thus, the more Afghans come to believe that they deserve a dignified life defined in terms of rights to freedom, education, and safety, the more they will become critical of Pakistan’s attempts to marginalize India from their socio-political life and finally push for the inclusion of India. Only Time can tell what actually happens in Afghanistan over the next couple of years.”
CONCLUSION
Whatever be the final truth, India must engage with the Taliban leadership, leverage our support amongst the people, build our resources to deal with any surge in terrorism within our borders, and keep our powder dry.